Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for September 2023

Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for September 2023

As of September 1, 2023, the Mammoth Lakes real estate market continues to move towards a more balanced market.  The biggest driving force in this shift is slightly increasing inventory.  While inventory is still lower than the 10-year average, the number of properties for sale continues to increase month over month in 2023.   The chart below shows inventory levels for the last 8 months for condos and single-family homes combined (green).

The Mammoth Lakes real estate market summary as of September 1, 2023:

• Listings remain low but highest YTD levels.

As stated above, inventory levels for both condos (57) and single-family homes (28) are at the highest levels of 2023.  This level of properties for sale is down over 50% from pre-COVID levels.

The chart below shows inventory levels for 2013 – 2023 for both condos and single-family homes combined.

Low inventory is not unique to Mammoth Lakes and with few exceptions is a fact nationwide.  Did you know approximately 40% of US homeowners own their home outright with no mortgage?  Of the remaining homeowners with a mortgage, 70% have interest rates below 4%.  As a result, homeowners are reluctant to give up a low interest rate and buy a new property with interest rates currently over 7%.  This translates to fewer properties for sale (low inventory).

• Prices are holding at 2022 levels.

Low inventory will keep prices steady.  This can be attributed to the basic law of supply and demand.  As long as there are still buyers who want to purchase in Mammoth Lakes and the inventory remains low, prices will hold. 

• Interest rates.

Interest rates continue to hover near 20-year highs.  The conforming rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.08%, while a 30-year jumbo is 7.25%.  This is an average rate with no adjustment for occupancy, credit score, down payment or type of property.

• Market Temperature

With few exceptions, the days of multiple over asking offers are over.  The current pool of buyers continues to shrink but these buyers are generally serious and qualified. Listings that are updated and “move-in” ready continue to receive more interest than those in original or dated condition.

• 2023 Forecast

In the short-term, the supply of homes for sale will continue to remain below the averages for the last 10 years.  If the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold for updated/remodeled properties.  Properties in need of an update will see a decrease in value.  As for sale prices, we continue to believe that the median home price this year will be consistent with the second half of 2022 and there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales (approximately 40%). The median prices reflected in this report are for 8 months and the trend indicates stable prices and declining days on market.  A topic for a future discussion is the impact of the increasing challenges in obtaining fire insurance in California and how this will impact the market going forward.

What's Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?

It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments:  condos/townhomes and single-family homes.  With half the year behind us, there is enough data to solidify the trends we have anticipated in previous months.  This data is through August 31, 2023.

Condos

• The YTD median sales price for condos through August 2023 was $732,500.  This is $17,500 lower than 2022.
• While the median days on market is up from 2022, this number has been decreasing in 2023 and is currently at 60 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 53. This period begins on the property's listing day and ends when it closes escrow.
• 140 condos sold through August 2023 (average of 17.5 per month). In 2022, an average of 28 condos were sold per month.
• There are 57 active condos listed for sale on September 1, 2023 (up from 53 on August 1). For reference, there were only 3 condos listed in January 2022, and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. Refer to the previous charts. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels (September 2019 there were 129 condos for sale).
• There are 41 pending sales on September 1 compared to 31 on August 1 (includes 10 which are new construction with completion dates in 2023 and 2024).

Single-Family Homes (SFH)

• The median sales price for SFH sold through August 2023 was $1,299,000. This is up from $1,217,500 in 2022.
• The median days on market for SFH sold through August 2023 is 57 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 68 days.
• 33 SFHs sold through August 2023 (average 4.1/month) compared to 7 per month in 2022.
• There are 28 active single-family homes listed for sale on September 1. While inventory is up from last month (23), it is still below pre-COVID levels (September 2019 there were 69 single-family homes for sale). Refer to previous charts.
• There are 17 pending sales on September 1 which is up from 14 on August 1.

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?

It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California, which are mainly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is primarily a second home / discretionary income market, and as the market continues to normalize after the crazy "COVID era," sellers should not expect multiple over-asking price offers.  If you are even remotely

thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no-obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold. 

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?

As long as inventory remains low, most sellers are firm on their asking price.  This is a market for astute buyers, and this is where our experience can help you with a successful offer and closing.   If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advance to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders with a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (i.e., possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years).  Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in specific projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this challenging market, so reach out for a free consultation to set you on the right path to achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.  

Conclusion

Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate the current market. We have tools, resources, and expertise to make buying and/or selling as hassle free as possible.

Notes:

1. All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
2. *Median price = middle value.  This is a good indicator when there is significant data, as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
3. **Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending that have not yet closed.