Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for March 2023

Not much has changed since the February Market Update and 2023 is picking up right where we left off in 2022. The Mammoth Lakes real estate market can be summed up in a few key points.

• Listings are limited.

Inventory is near record lows for both condos (29) and single-family homes (10). Historically there is an increase in inventory in the spring. The record breaking snowfall will extend the winter season which many believe will result in sellers holding on to their properties longer for personal use and rental income. The last big snowfall year was 2017 and the most active quarter in real estate was 3^rd quarter. Some predict the August to October will be the most active real estate period this year.

• Prices are holding at 2022 levels.

It all comes down to supply and demand. Prices will continue to hold if inventory remains low.

• Interest rates.

The conforming rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.97%. This is an average rate with no adjustment for occupancy, credit score, down payment or type of property.  Current rates are at a highpoint for the last year. That being said, interest rates are not as significant of a factor for most second home/discretionary income purchases.

• Market Temperature

During the last few weeks, we have seen an increase in phone calls from buyers and sellers.  That being said, there seems to be no real sense of urgency for either buyers or sellers. Some buyers are sitting on the sidelines, while others are constantly looking for a new listing to match their criteria. Even when they see a property they like, they continue to “watch.”  Sellers seem to be enjoying their properties with little/no desire to sell despite the favorable market conditions. 

• 2023 Forecast

Over the longer-term, the supply of homes for sale will remain below historic averages. Listing activity may be tight for an extended period:  if the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold.  As for sale prices, we still believe — as do almost all economists — that the median home price this year will be consistent with the second half of 2022 and there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales.  The median prices reflected in this report are for only 2 months and do not define a trend.

What's Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?

It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments:  single-family homes and condos/ townhomes. Since we only have two months of activity for 2023, this data looks at the activity so far this year as well as 2022 as it compares to 2021. This data is through February 28, 2023.

Condos

• The YTD median sales price for condos through February 2023 was $767k.  In 2022 it was $750,000, up 23% over 2021.
• The median days on the market for properties sold through February 2023 is 114 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 53 (up from 52 days in 2021). This period begins on the property's listing day and ends when it closes escrow.
• 20 condos sold through February 2023 (average of 10/month). In 2022, an average of 28 condos were sold per month, compared to 38 per month in 2021.
• There are 29 active condos listed for sale on March 1, 2023. For reference, there were only 3 condos listed in January 2022, and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels (March 2019 there were 120 condo listings).
• There are 30 pending sales on March 1 compared to 26 last month (includes 13 which are new construction with completion dates in 2023 and 2024).

Single-Family Homes (SFH)

• The median sales price SFH sold through February 2023 was $925k. The YTD median sales price for single-family homes sold in 2022 is $1,217,500, up approximately 14% over 2021.
• The median days on market for SFH sold through February 2023 is 52 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 68 days (down from 70 days in 2021).
• 5 SFHs were sold through February 2023 (average 2.5/month). In 2022 the average number of homes sold monthly was 7, compared to 11 in 2021.
• There are 10 active single-family homes listed for sale on March 1 (March 2019 there were 34).
• There are 5 pending sales in March – up from 3 last month.

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?

It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California, which are mainly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is primarily a second home / discretionary income market, and as the market continues to normalize after the crazy "COVID era," sellers should not expect multiple over-asking price offers. While properties are still selling, most are taking longer than they did in the last 24 months. If you are even remotely thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no-obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold. 

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?

Although inventory is on the decline, and so are the numbers of buyers, this means less competition. It does not mean there are "deals" to be had (note the average sold price is still up over 2021), but pricing is stabilizing and most often selling at or below list price. If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advance to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders with a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (i.e., possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years).  Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in specific projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this challenging market, so reach out to me for a free consultation to set you on the right path to achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.  

Conclusion

Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate this hot market. We have tools, resources and expertise to make buying and/or selling as hassle free as possible.

Notes:

1. All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
2. *Median price = middle value.  This is a good indicator when there is significant data, as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
3. **Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending that have not yet closed.