Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for January 2023

What a year!  The real estate market in 2022 came in like a lion and went out like a lamb.  A strong lamb but none the less a much calmer finish to the year.  To summarize the year in a sentence – fewer properties sold in 2022 than in 2021 and those that did sell sold for significantly more than the previous year (23% more for condos and 14% for single family homes) and in about the same amount of time (days on market was 53 in 2021 and 52 in 2020).  As we enter 2023, inventory is down.  Low inventory means prices are holding.  While pricing may come down slightly, they are still higher than pre-COVID levels and I don’t expect this to change any time soon.  I do not expect the number of homes for sale will get back to normalized levels in the mid-term as many potential sellers will decide not to sell since “holding steady” seems to be the strategy in the current state of the national economy and increased interest rates.   There are still plenty of buyers but many of those are waiting on the sidelines. What are they waiting for?  What I hear most is uncertainty about the economy and the markets. My forecast for 2023 is the same as reported the last few months.  Over the longer-term, the supply of homes for sale will remain below historic averages.  Listing activity may be tight for a long time and if the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold. As for sale prices, I still believe — as do almost all economists — that the median home price this year will be consistent with the second half of 2022 and there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales.

What’s Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?

It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments:  single-family homes and condos/ townhomes. This data is through December 31, 2022.

Condos

• The YTD median sales price for condos sold in 2022 was $750,000 which is up 23% over 2021.
• The median days on market in 2022 was 53 (up from 52 days 2021). This time-period begins on the day the property is listed and ends when it closes escrow.
• 335 condos sold in 2022 (28 per month) as compared to 2021 when 460 condos sold (38 per month). This is 37% fewer condos sold in 2022 as compared to 2021.
• There are 35 active condos listed for sale in January 2022 as compared to 45 last month. There were only 3 condos listed in January 2022 and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels.  Historically there should be at least double the inventory this time of year.
• There are 26 pending sales on January 1 as compared to 29 last month.

Single-Family Homes

• The YTD median sales price for single-family homes sold in 2022 is $1,217,500 which is up approximately 14% over 2021.
• The median days on market was 68 days which is down from 70 days in 2021.
• 86 single-family homes were sold in 2022 (7 per month) which is down from 11 average monthly in 2021. 46% fewer homes selling in 2022 as compared to 2021.
• There are 13 active single-family homes listed for sale in January which is up from 10 in January 2022. This is still below pre-COVID levels and should be double this time of year.
• There are 2 pending sales in January – down from 6 last month.

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?

It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California which are mostly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is mostly a second home / discretionary income market and as the market continues to normalize after the crazy “COVID era” sellers should not expect multiple over asking price offers.  While properties are still selling, most are taking longer than they did in the last 24 months. If you are even remotely thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold. 

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?

Although inventory is on the decline and so are the numbers of buyers, this means less competition. It does not mean there are “deals” to be had (note the average sold price is still up over 2021) but pricing is stabilizing and most often selling at or below list price.  If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advanced to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders who have a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (ie possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years).  Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in certain projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this tough market so reach out to me for a free consultation to set you on the right path for achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.  

Conclusion

Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate this hot market. We have created guides to help with both the buying and selling process.  You can access the guides on my website:

Ultimate Mammoth Lakes Sellers Guide

Ultimate Mammoth Lakes Buyers Guide

Notes:

1. All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
2. *Median price = middle value.  This is used as a good indicator when there is significant data as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
3. **Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending which have not yet closed.