Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for August 2023

As of August 1, 2023, the Mammoth Lakes real estate market continues to move towards a more balanced market.   In a balanced market buyers tend to place reasonable offers on homes and sellers tend to accept them.  Homes remain on the market for a moderate amount of time – neither lagging for months nor getting snapped up in mere days or hours with the exception of over-priced properties which seem to sit on the market for longer than average.  Home prices remain stable, or grow at a steady pace.  That being said,  in Mammoth Lakes specifically,  there will be fewer property sales in 2023 than 2022.  Properties which are updated will sell quicker than those in “dated” condition.  The Mammoth Lakes real estate market summary:

• Listings remain low but highest YTD levels.

Inventory levels for both condos (53) and single family homes (23) are at the highest levels of 2023.  That being said,  inventory in 2023 continues to be lower than the 10 year average.   We do anticipated inventory to continue to increase as we enter the fall selling season.

• Prices are holding at 2022 levels.

Low inventory will keep prices steady.  This can be attributed to the basic law of supply and demand.

• Interest rates.

Interest rates continue to rise.  The conforming rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.37%, while a 30-year jumbo is 7.31%.  This is an average rate with no adjustment for occupancy, credit score, down payment or type of property. Interestingly, the rising rates appear to have minimal impact on the second home/vacation property market.  

• Market Temperature

In a balanced market, as described earlier, buyers and sellers are giving a little in negotiations.  With few exceptions, the days of multiple over asking offers are over.  The current pool of buyers is smaller than it was this time last year but these buyers are generally serious and qualified. Listings that are updated and “move-in” ready continue to receive more interest. Properties which are not updated appear to be sitting on the market longer.

• 2023 Forecast

In the short-term, the supply of homes for sale will remain below the averages for the last 10 years.  If the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold for updated/remodeled properties.  Properties in need of an update will see a decrease in value.  As for sale prices, we continue to believe that the median home price this year will be consistent with the second half of 2022 and there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales.  The median prices reflected in this report are for 7 months and the trend indicates stable prices, lower days on the market and fewer properties sold.

What's Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?

It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments:  condos/townhomes and single-family homes.  With half the year behind us, there is enough data to solidify the trends we have anticipated in previous months.  This data is through July 31, 2023.

Condos

• The YTD median sales price for condos through July 2023 was $750,000.  This is exactly the same as in 2022.
• While the median days on market is up from 2022, this number has been decreasing month over month in 2023 and is currently at 60 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 53. This period begins on the property's listing day and ends when it closes escrow.
• 107 condos sold through July 2023 (average of 15 per month). In 2022, an average of 28 condos were sold per month.
• There are 53 active condos listed for sale on August 1, 2023 (up from 44 on July 1). For reference, there were only 3 condos listed in January 2022, and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels (August 2019 there were 128 condos for sale).
• There are 31 pending sales on August 1 compared to 38 on July 1 (includes 10 which are new construction with completion dates in 2023 and 2024).

Single-Family Homes (SFH)

• The median sales price for SFH sold through July 2023 was $1,299,000. This is up from $1,217,500 in 2022.
• The median days on market for SFH sold through July 2023 is 56 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 68 days.
• 26 SFHs were sold through July 2023 (average 3.7/month) compared to 7 per month in 2022.
• There are 23 active single-family homes listed for sale on August 1. While inventory is up from last month, it is still below pre-COVID levels (August 2019 there were 65 single-family homes listed).
• There are 14 pending sales on August 1 – up from 8 on June 1.

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?

It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California, which are mainly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is primarily a second home / discretionary income market, and as the market continues to normalize after the crazy "COVID era," sellers should not expect multiple over-asking price offers.  If you are even remotely

thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no-obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold. 

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?

As long as inventory remains low, most sellers are firm on their asking price.  This is a market for astute buyers and this is where our experience can help you with a successful offer and closing.   If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advance to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders with a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (i.e., possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years).  Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in specific projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this challenging market, so reach out to me for a free consultation to set you on the right path to achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.  

Conclusion

Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate the current market. We have tools, resources and expertise to make buying and/or selling as hassle free as possible.

Notes:

1. All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
2. *Median price = middle value.  This is a good indicator when there is significant data, as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
3. **Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending that have not yet closed.