Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for April 2023

Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for April 2023

As we enter the 2^nd quarter of 2023, we continue with the trend set in the last few months of 2022 – low inventory, stable prices and longer days on the market.   The Mammoth Lakes real estate market can be summed up in a few key points.

• Listings are limited.

Inventory continues to be low for both condos (30) and single-family homes (12). Historically there is an increase in inventory in the spring and the record-breaking snowfall appears to be delaying the influx of new listings.  However, we expect that to change soon based on the volume of potential seller inquiries we have received. 

• Prices are holding at 2022 levels.

It all comes down to supply and demand. Prices will continue to hold if inventory remains low.

• Interest rates.

The conforming rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.44%, while a 30-year jumbo is 5.95%.  This is an average rate with no adjustment for occupancy, credit score, down payment or type of property.  These rates are down slightly from earlier this year. 

• Market Temperature

The record-breaking snowfall has created two very different groups.  Many long-time property owners are simply tired of all the snow.  It has been a tough winter for some and this is pushing some towards selling sooner than anticipated.  For buyers, many are excited about the snow and are planning on achieving their dream of owning in Mammoth Lakes sooner than planned.   The outstanding question is whether these two groups will actually intersect – will the properties being listed match the criteria of those who want to buy? 

• 2023 Forecast

In the short-term, the supply of homes for sale will remain below the averages for the last 10 years.  We expect listing activity to loosen up in the next several weeks.  Depending on the amount of inventory will determine whether there will be any price adjustment.  If the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold.  As for sale prices, we believe that the median home price this year will be consistent with the second half of 2022 and there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales.  The median prices reflected in this report are for only 3 months and do not define a trend.

What's Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?

It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments:  single-family homes and condos/ townhomes. With only three months of activity for 2023, we will look at the activity so far this year as well as 2022 as it compares to 2021. This data is through March 31, 2023.

Condos

• The YTD median sales price for condos through March 2023 was $739,500.  In 2022 it was $750,000, up 23% over 2021.
• The median days on the market for properties sold through March 2023 is 114 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 53 (up from 52 days in 2021). This period begins on the property's listing day and ends when it closes escrow.
• 40 condos sold through March 2023 (average of 13 per month). In 2022, an average of 28 condos were sold per month, compared to 38 per month in 2021.
• There are 30 active condos listed for sale on April 1, 2023. For reference, there were only 3 condos listed in January 2022, and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels (April 2019 there were 113 condo listings).
• There are 19 pending sales on April 1 compared to 30 last month (includes 11 which are new construction with completion dates in 2023 and 2024).

Single-Family Homes (SFH)

• The median sales price SFH sold through March 2023 was $925,000. The YTD median sales price for single-family homes sold in 2022 is $1,217,500, up approximately 14% over 2021.
• The median days on market for SFH sold through March 2023 is 59 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 68 days (down from 70 days in 2021).
• 9 SFHs were sold through March 2023 (average 3/month). In 2022 the average number of homes sold monthly was 7, compared to 11 in 2021.
• There are 12 active single-family homes listed for sale on April 1.  While inventory is up from last month, it is still below pre-COVID levels (April 2019 there were 28 single family homes listed).
• There are 2 pending sales in April – down from 5 last month.

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?

It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California, which are mainly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is primarily a second home / discretionary income market, and as the market continues to normalize after the crazy "COVID era," sellers should not expect multiple over-asking price offers. While properties are still selling, most are taking longer than they did in the last 24 months. If you are even remotely thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no-obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold. 

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?

As long as inventory remains low, most sellers are firm on their asking price.  This is a market for astute buyers and this is where our experience can help you with a successful offer and closing.   If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advance to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders with a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (i.e., possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years).  Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in specific projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this challenging market, so reach out to me for a free consultation to set you on the right path to achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.  

Conclusion

Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate the current market. We have tools, resources and expertise to make buying and/or selling as hassle free as possible.

Notes:

1. All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
2. *Median price = middle value.  This is a good indicator when there is significant data, as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
3. **Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending that have not yet closed.