Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for June 2023

Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for June 2023

The trend of the past 6 months is finally shifting as we enter June 2023.  Bottom line…there will be fewer property sales in 2023 than 2022.  The sold properties will sell more quickly than earlier this year and near 2022 prices.  The Mammoth Lakes real estate market can be summed up in a few key points.

• Listings remain low but highest YTD levels.

Inventory continues to be low for both condos (39) and single-family homes (15).  That being said,  these are the highest monthly inventory levels so far in 2023.

• Prices are holding at 2022 levels.

It all comes down to supply and demand. Prices will continue to hold if inventory remains low.   

• Interest rates.

The conforming rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is down from earlier this year at 6.92%, while a 30-year jumbo is 6.68%.  This is an average rate with no adjustment for occupancy, credit score, down payment or type of property.  The higher rates have an impact on buying power.

• Market Temperature

The current pool of buyers is smaller than it was this time last year but these buyers are generally serious and qualified (either cash or have pre-approvals).  Listings that are updated and “move-in” ready are receiving more iinterest than those needing updating. This is true across all price ranges.   Most sellers have realistic expectations and know the days of multiple offers over asking price are over.   We are approaching more of a balanced market which means buyers and sellers each need to give a little in negotiations.

• 2023 Forecast

In the short-term, the supply of homes for sale will remain below the averages for the last 10 years.  If the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold.  As for sale prices, we believe that the median home price this year will be consistent with the second half of 2022 and there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales.  The median prices reflected in this report are for only 5 months and the trend indicates stable prices, lower days on the market and fewer properties sold. 

What's Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?

It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments:  condos/townhomes and single-family homes. With only five months of activity for 2023, we will look at the activity so far this year as well as 2022 as it compares to 2021. This data is through May 31, 2023.

Condos

• The YTD median sales price for condos through May 2023 was $754,500.  In 2022 it was $750,000, up 23% over 2021.
• While the median days on market is up from 2022, this number has been decreasing month over month in 2023 and is currently at 80 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 53 (up from 52 days in 2021). This period begins on the property's listing day and ends when it closes escrow.
• 68 condos sold through May 2023 (average of 13 per month). In 2022, an average of 28 condos were sold per month, compared to 38 per month in 2021.
• There are 39 active condos listed for sale on June 1, 2023 (up from 28 on May 1). For reference, there were only 3 condos listed in January 2022, and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels (June 2019 there were 174 condo listings).
• There are 30 pending sales on June 1 compared to 22 last month (includes 10 which are new construction with completion dates in 2023 and 2024).

Single-Family Homes (SFH)

• The median sales price SFH sold through May 2023 was $1,349.500. The YTD median sales price for single-family homes sold in 2022 is $1,217,500, up approximately 14% over 2021.
• The median days on market for SFH sold through May 2023 is 60 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 68 days (down from 70 days in 2021).
• 16 SFHs were sold through May 2023 (average 3/month). In 2022 the average number of homes sold monthly was 7, compared to 11 in 2021.
• There are 15 active single-family homes listed for sale on June 1. While inventory is up from last month, it is still below pre-COVID levels (June 2019 there were 66 single-family homes listed).
• There are 6 pending sales on May 1 – same as last month.

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?

It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California, which are mainly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is primarily a second home / discretionary income market, and as the market continues to normalize after the crazy "COVID era," sellers should not expect multiple over-asking price offers.  If you are even remotely thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no-obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold. 

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?

As long as inventory remains low, most sellers are firm on their asking price.  This is a market for astute buyers and this is where our experience can help you with a successful offer and closing.   If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advance to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders with a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (i.e., possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years).  Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in specific projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this challenging market, so reach out to me for a free consultation to set you on the right path to achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.  

Conclusion

Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate the current market. We have tools, resources and expertise to make buying and/or selling as hassle free as possible.

Notes:

1. All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
2. *Median price = middle value.  This is a good indicator when there is significant data, as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
3. **Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending that have not yet closed.