Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for July 2023

Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for July 2023

As we enter the 2^nd half of 2023, we are definitely seeing signs of a more balanced market.  In a balanced market buyers tend to place reasonable offers on homes and sellers tend to accept them.  Homes remain on the market for a moderate amount of time – neither lagging for months nor getting snapped up in mere days or hours.  Home prices remain stable, or grow at a steady pace.  That being said,  in Mammoth Lakes specifically,  there will be fewer property sales in 2023 than 2022.  The sold properties will sell more quickly than earlier this year and near 2022 prices.  The Mammoth Lakes real estate market summary:

• Listings remain low but highest YTD levels.

Inventory continues to be low for both condos (44) and single-family homes (21).  That being said,  these are the highest monthly inventory levels so far in 2023.  We expect the increase in listings to continue.  During the first two days in July, there have been 5 new condo listings and 6 new single-family home listings. 

• Prices are holding at 2022 levels.

It all comes down to supply and demand. Prices will continue to hold if inventory remains low.   

• Interest rates.

The conforming rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.02%, while a 30-year jumbo is 6.9%.  This is an average rate with no adjustment for occupancy, credit score, down payment or type of property. Despite the rising borrowing costs, the latest read of the housing market metrics suggest ongoing resilience.  

• Market Temperature

In a balanced market, as described earlier, buyers and sellers are giving a little in negotiations.  With few exceptions, the days of multiple over asking offers are over.  The current pool of buyers is smaller than it was this time last year but these buyers are generally serious and qualified. Listings that are updated and “move-in” ready continue to receive more interest. Interestingly, the days on market (DOM) are the same for both condos and single family homes – historically DOM for SFH is longer.

• 2023 Forecast

In the short-term, the supply of homes for sale will remain below the averages for the last 10 years.  If the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold.  As for sale prices, we continue to believe that the median home price this year will be consistent with the second half of 2022 and there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales.  The median prices reflected in this report are for 6 months and the trend indicates stable prices, lower days on the market and fewer properties sold.

What's Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?

It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments:  condos/townhomes and single-family homes.  With half the year behind us, there is enough data to solidify the trends we have anticipated in previous months.  This data is through June 30, 2023.

Condos

• The YTD median sales price for condos through June 2023 was $750,000.  This is exactly the same as in 2022.
• While the median days on market is up from 2022, this number has been decreasing month over month in 2023 and is currently at 60 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 53. This period begins on the property's listing day and ends when it closes escrow.
• 87 condos sold through June 2023 (average of 13.5 per month). In 2022, an average of 28 condos were sold per month.
• There are 44 active condos listed for sale on July 1, 2023 (up from 39 on June 1). For reference, there were only 3 condos listed in January 2022, and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels (July 2019 there were 191 condos for sale).
• There are 38 pending sales on July 1 compared to 30 on June 1 (includes 10 which are new construction with completion dates in 2023 and 2024).

Single-Family Homes (SFH)

• The median sales price for SFH sold through June 2023 was $1,250,000. This is up from $1,217,500 in 2022.
• The median days on market for SFH sold through June 2023 is 59 days. In 2022 the median days on the market was 68 days.
• 21 SFHs were sold through June 2023 (average 3.5/month) compared to 7 per month in 2022.
• There are 21 active single-family homes listed for sale on July 1. While inventory is up from last month, it is still below pre-COVID levels (July 2019 there were 77 single-family homes listed).
• There are 8 pending sales on July 1 – up from 6 on June 1.

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?

It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California, which are mainly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is primarily a second home / discretionary income market, and as the market continues to normalize after the crazy "COVID era," sellers should not expect multiple over-asking price offers.  If you are even remotely thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no-obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold. 

What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?

As long as inventory remains low, most sellers are firm on their asking price.  This is a market for astute buyers and this is where our experience can help you with a successful offer and closing.   If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advance to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders with a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (i.e., possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years).  Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in specific projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this challenging market, so reach out to me for a free consultation to set you on the right path to achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.  

Conclusion

Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate the current market. We have tools, resources and expertise to make buying and/or selling as hassle free as possible.

Notes:

1. All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
2. *Median price = middle value.  This is a good indicator when there is significant data, as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
3. **Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending that have not yet closed.