Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for December 2022
As we enter the final month of 2022, Mammoth Lakes property inventory continues to decline while days on the market increases. Pricing continues to be down slightly from historic highs in 2021 but still higher than pre-COVID levels. In other words, there are fewer properties for sale, and they are staying on the market longer while prices are only declining slightly. My forecast for 2023 is the same as reported the last two months. Over the longer-term, the supply of homes for sale will remain below historic averages. I do not expect the number of homes for sale will get back to normalized levels in the mid-term as many potential sellers will decide not to sell since “holding steady” seems to be the strategy in the current state of the national economy and increased interest rates. There will always be necessity sellers and those who want to cash-out or do a 1031 exchange. Listing activity may be tight for a long time and if the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold. As for sale prices, I still believe — as do almost all economists — that the median home price next year will be consistent with the second half of 2022 and there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales.
What’s Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?
It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments: single-family homes and condos/ townhomes. This data is through November 30, 2022.
Condos
- The YTD median sales price for condos sold through November 2022 is $755,000 which is up 23% over 2021 and down $7,500 from October.
- The median days on market YTD is 53 days (up from 52 days 2021). This time-period begins on the day the property is listed and ends when it closes escrow.
- 317 condos have closed escrow so far in 2022 (nearly 29 per month) as compared to 2021 when the average was 38 per month. We will end the year at approximately 34% fewer condos sold than 2021.
- There are 45 active condos listed for sale as of December 1 compared to 47 last month. There were only 3 condos listed in January 2022 and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels. For reference, in November 2019 there were 84 condos listed for sale).
- There are 29 pending sales on December 1 as compared to 38 last month.
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CURRENTLY LISTED
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Condos
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Median* Price
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$699,000
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↑ UP from $685,000 in November
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Median* Days on Market
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62
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↑ UP from 59 in November
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Total Available as of December 1, 2022
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45
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↓DOWN from 47 in November
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Single-Family Homes
- The YTD median sales price for single-family homes through November 2022 is $1,227,500 which is up approximately 14% over 2021 and down $2,500 from last month.
- The median days on market is 67 days which is the same as last month and down from 70 days in 2021.
- 82 single-family homes closed escrow through November 2022 (7.5 per month) which is down from 11 average monthly in 2021. We will end the year at approximately 46% fewer homes selling in 2022 as compared to 2021.
- There are 7 active single-family homes listed for sale on December 1 which is down from 9 last month and up from 10 in January. For reference, in October 2019 (pre-COVID) inventory was 66.
- There are 6 pending sales on November 1 – down from 9 last month.
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CURRENTLY LISTED
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Single Family Homes
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Median* Price
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$3,750,000
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same as November
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Median* Days on Market
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157
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↑ UP from 119 in November
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Total Available as of December 1, 2022
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7
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↓DOWN from 9 in November
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What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?
It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California which are mostly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is mostly a second home / discretionary income market and as the market continues to normalize after the crazy “COVID era,” sellers should not expect multiple over asking price offers. While properties are still selling, most are taking longer than they did in the last 24 months. If you are even remotely thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold.
What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?
Although inventory is on the decline and so are the numbers of buyers, this means less competition. It does not mean there are “deals” to be had (note the average sold price is still up over 2021) but pricing is stabilizing and most often selling at or below list price. If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advanced to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders who have a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (ie possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years). Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in certain projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this tough market so reach out to me for a free consultation to set you on the right path for achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.
Conclusion
Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate this hot market. We have created guides to help with both the buying and selling process. You can access the guides on my website:
Notes:
- All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
- *Median price = middle value. This is used as a good indicator when there is significant data as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
- **Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending which have not yet closed.
