Elections and Real Estate: What to Expect

While the election season may cause some uncertainty, based on historical data, U.S. elections tend to have minimal long-term impact on the real estate market. In fact, post-election years often show positive trends. Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, your perspective will shape how you see the market, but the data is encouraging.

According to an article by Keeping Current Matters that examines how the 2024 Presidential Election may affect real estate, data compiled from HUD and NAR shows:

- In 9 out of the last 11 elections, home sales volume increased in the year following the election.
- In 7 of the last 9 elections, home values (sales prices) also increased.

Similarly, Bankrate reported that home prices, on average, have climbed by 4.84% in election years since 1987, compared to 4.44% in non-election years.

What does this mean for you?

If you’re one of the many buyers or sellers thinking, "I’ll wait to see what happens after the election," the post-election market trends could work in your favor. But it often depends on whether you're buying, selling, or doing both.

For sellers, there’s optimism around home value increases. However, if a flood of new listings comes onto the market, more inventory could reduce the chances of multiple offers driving prices higher. For buyers, more inventory means more choices—which is always welcome—but affordability will largely depend on where mortgage rates land.

Ultimately, the real estate market is driven by a few key factors:

- Affordability: Tied closely to interest rates, employment, and home values.
- Inventory: Supply has been tight for years, with many homeowners holding on to their low interest rates. But change is inevitable—whether due to relocation, life changes, or necessity.
- Economic factors and location: These are overarching influences, but affordability and inventory remain the primary drivers of supply and demand.

While election outcomes may influence policies that impact the housing market, the key factors influencing real estate remain constant. For buyers and sellers, the most important question is: What matters most to you? Affordability, timing, location, and your specific needs are the ultimate deciding factors.

As always, our goal is to provide the best guidance possible for my clients, based on their individual circumstances and priorities.

And don’t forget to vote on November 5, 2024!