Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market Update for November 2022
November 1, 2022
As we enter November 2022, Mammoth Lakes inventory continues to decline while days on the market is increasing. Pricing continues to be down slightly from historic highs in 2021 but still higher than pre-COVID levels. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my forecast is the same. Over the longer-term, the supply of homes for sale will remain below historic averages, and I say this for one simple reason: mortgage rates. In 2020 a record number of households refinanced their homes to take advantage of the mortgage rates that had plummeted, and in 2021 over 6 million home buyers locked in mortgages with rates averaging below 3 percent. This includes many Mammoth Lakes second homeowners. I do not expect the number of homes for sale will get back to normalized levels in the mid-term as many potential sellers will decide not to sell as, if they did, they would lose the “never seen before, and likely never to be seen again” mortgage rate that they currently have. As expected, this uptick in rates has once again sidelined many potential buyers. Of course, there will be necessity sellers and those who want to cash-out or do a 1031 exchange. Listing activity may be tight for a long time and if the supply remains below the level of demand, the prices will hold. As for sale prices, I still believe — as do almost all economists — that the median home price next year will hold consistent with 2022, but there will be a significant drop in the volume of sales.
What’s Happening in the Mammoth Lakes Real Estate Market?
It is helpful to look at the current market in two different segments: single-family homes and condos/ townhomes. This data is through October 31, 2022.
The YTD median sales price for condos sold through October 2022 is $762,500 which is up 26% over 2021 and down $12,500 from September.
294 condos have closed escrow so far in 2022 (29 per month) as compared to 2021 when the average was 38 per month. We are trending to sell 31% fewer condo sales for 2022 (equal to pre-COVID levels).
There are 47 active condos listed for sale as of November 1 compared to 48 last month. There were only 3 condos listed in January 2022 and inventory steadily increased month over month until it started to decline in August. While inventory is up from earlier this year, it is down from pre-COVID levels (March 2019 there were 94 condos listed for sale).
There are 38 pending sales on November 1 as compared to 45 last month.
The YTD median sales price for single-family homes through October 2022 is $1,230,000 which is up approximately 15% over 2021 and up $5,000 from last month.
The median days on market is 64 days which is the same as last month and down from 70 days in 2021. Days on market for single family homes sold in October was 127 (over double the YTD median).
75 single-family homes closed escrow through October 2022 (7.5 per month) which is down from 11 average monthly in 2021. This trend indicates 45% fewer homes will sell in 2022 (equal to pre-COVID levels).
There are 9 active single-family homes listed for sale on November 1 which is down from 16 last month and up from 10 in January. March 2019 (pre-COVID) inventory was 38.
There are 9 pending sales on November 1 (same as last month).
What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Homeowners and Sellers?
It is important to have realistic expectations when selling your property. Mammoth Lakes is a different market than other areas in California which are mostly focused on full-time owner-occupied properties. This is mostly a second home market and as we transition to a more balanced market, sellers should not expect multiple over asking price offers. While properties are still selling, most are taking longer than they did in the last 24 months. If you are even remotely thinking about selling, contact our team to schedule a no obligation Property Playbook & Strategy session. With the right strategy and patience, we will get your property sold.
What Does This Mean for Mammoth Lakes Area Home Buyers?
Although inventory is on the decline and so are the numbers of buyers, this means less competition. It does not mean there are “deals” to be had (note the average sold price is still up over 2021) but pricing is stabilizing and most often selling at or below list price. If you are not a cash buyer, contact a lender in advanced to get pre-approved and make sure you understand the different options available as the interest rates continue to increase. We can connect you with lenders who have a proven track record of success in our area and creative options (ie possible seller buy-down of your rate for the first 2-3 years). Lending rules have changed on many condo projects in Mammoth. Many buyers do not know that not all lenders can lend in certain projects in Mammoth Lakes. We can help you increase your chances of securing the property of your dreams in this tough market so reach out to me for a free consultation to set you on the right path for achieving your goal of owning property in Mammoth Lakes.
Whether you are a seller or a buyer, there is no doubt you will benefit from teaming with an educated and experienced Realtor® to help you navigate this hot market. We have created guides to help with both the buying and selling process. You can access the guides on my website:
All data are sourced from the Mammoth Lakes Board of Realtors. Data for Mammoth Lakes ONLY and not the surrounding areas.
*Median price = middle value. This is used as a good indicator when there is significant data as it minimizes the impact of unusually high or low values and provides a better perspective of the big picture.
**Total Available excludes properties under contract/pending which have not yet closed.